Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6745acbcb8f9f57fc9bdb7e70c5e0c24b52b35b5d47552573cc4dd55b6c6aed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,332 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 19c | 3,150$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.85 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,565$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 53c | 584.17$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.32 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 525.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 3c | 488.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 6c | 387.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked No | 60c | 382.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 335.28$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 17c | 290.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 75c | 239.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 234.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 21c | 234.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 211.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 75c | 207.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 204.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 59c | 201.78$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed Yes | 46c | 185.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 164.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 65c | 153.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 150.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 49c | 134.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 47c | 128.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 39c | 117$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 46c | 116.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 72c | 116.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 104.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 66c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 95.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 56c | 89.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 87.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 84.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 80.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 63c | 78.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 62c | 77.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed Yes | 75c | 75.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 66c | 74.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 72.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 70c | 71.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 70.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 69.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 67.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 64.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 69c | 64.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 17c | 59.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 46c | 59.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 37c | 55.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 68c | 54.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 52c | 51.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…98d8backed Yes | 76c | 50.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 69c | 49.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 36c | 49.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 64c | 47.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 47.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…03ffbacked No | 53c | 41.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 67c | 39.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 37.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 30c | 37.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 29c | 36.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…f913backed Yes | 67c | 35.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…3e65backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 68c | 32.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 62c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…088fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 67c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 53c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 62c | 17.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 72c | 16.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 64c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.