Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6a9ceeb47f78e02abdc1aed321fbadb1b1e3007de48008c960b7ae44ebb590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe683…812cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,195$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 683.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 610$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed No | 78c | 513.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 291.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 289.04$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 68c | 233.96$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 220.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…dd89backed Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 160.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 159.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 23c | 148.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…8aa4backed Yes | 32c | 116.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 115.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 106.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No | 75c | 99.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…5e3abacked No | 72c | 95.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 16c | 93.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 89.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 28c | 75.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 74.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 74.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 18c | 71.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 68.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 71c | 62.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 61.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 60.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 37c | 59.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 20c | 59.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed No | 73c | 54.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 68c | 50.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 49.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 32.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…4224backed No | 80c | 32.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 66c | 27.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…69eabacked No | 79c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 74c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.