Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d73f25555f122f963db8538570efaba867951423a9d88b3ce47b5625e53093f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,907$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,193$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 3,745$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…e330backed Yes | 1c | 3,451$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 0c | 3,137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 2c | 3,092$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,066$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.44 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 4c | 902.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Yes | 2c | 789.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 681.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 2c | 677.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 625.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 14c | 565.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 6c | 482.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…ebaebacked Yes | 7c | 334.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 9c | 287.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 268.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 266.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…e974backed Yes | 7c | 227.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 10c | 220.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0d…558cbacked Yes | 8c | 213.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 205.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 205.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…a0e3backed Yes | 7c | 186.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 184$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7b…0389backed Yes | 7c | 165.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 8c | 148.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 10c | 110.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 11c | 100.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 25c | 67.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 28c | 47.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…75a5backed No | 76c | 44.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 24c | 43.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 37.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 76c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 14.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…86dfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.