Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20ab5cc005d1b25f73282d54a6924cd087836b78053dc34837108dbac37066a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed No | 68c | 1,010$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 833.61$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 685.37$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 671.3$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 588.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 587.18$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 43c | 427.73$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 47c | 301.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.91 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 36c | 275.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes | 74c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 176.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 161.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 63c | 159.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 145$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 80c | 126.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 50c | 123.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 44c | 116$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 62c | 110.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 29c | 110.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 105.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 58c | 103.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 54c | 98.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 82.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 56c | 81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 80.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 39c | 77.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 74.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 54c | 72.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 67.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Yes | 66c | 64.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 36c | 59.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 42c | 59.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 37c | 58.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 28c | 58.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 56.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 56.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 52c | 53.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 21c | 51.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 29c | 50.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 49c | 50.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 45.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 42.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 40.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 32c | 34.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 33.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 32.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…500abacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 25.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 66c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 63c | 20.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 62c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 64c | 17.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 73c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.