College Football · resolved market
Spread: Michigan (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d77647e5c36fe4da54039d2d8b953642c02ce878bb32c28bad0fdaaacf756b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Michigan, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State | 53c | 7,458$3,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,510.06 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Michigan | 46c | 7,386$3,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.25 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Michigan State | 57c | 5,585$3,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.12 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Michigan | 47c | 3,500$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Michigan State | 54c | 2,595$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.43 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Michigan | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Michigan State | 52c | 1,836$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.26 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Michigan | 46c | 1,635$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.64 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Michigan | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Michigan State | 54c | 927.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.78 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Michigan State | 54c | 745$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Michigan State | 50c | 463$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan State | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Michigan State | 54c | 369.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michigan | 3c | 348.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Michigan State | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State | 52c | 194.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Michigan | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Michigan State | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Michigan State | 53c | 131.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Michigan State | 54c | 118$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Michigan | 48c | 104.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Michigan | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked Michigan State | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Michigan State | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Michigan | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked Michigan | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Michigan State | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Michigan State | 74c | 67.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Michigan State | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…6745backed Michigan | 49c | 38.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…d0ffbacked Michigan | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Michigan State | 55c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan (-14.5)this page
- Michigan vs. Michigan StateMichigan won
- Michigan vs. Michigan State: O/U 47.5Over won
- O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan (-13.5)Michigan State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.