College Football · resolved market
Michigan vs. Michigan State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb84e6d815c991d017e19c834153b03d037cd77f020426f8c8506daa6dd35d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Michigan, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Michigan State | 15c | 11,512$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.86 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Michigan State | 10c | 8,105$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.15 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Michigan State | 10c | 3,109$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 110 | 22.7%25 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Michigan State | 17c | 2,748$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.13 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Michigan State | 14c | 2,255$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.18 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Michigan State | 18c | 2,250$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.82 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Michigan State | 19c | 2,162$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.46 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Michigan State | 16c | 1,278$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Michigan State | 17c | 1,201$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.17 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Michigan State | 22c | 1,018$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Michigan | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Michigan State | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Michigan State | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Michigan State | 22c | 648.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Michigan State | 12c | 581.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State | 16c | 505.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan State | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Michigan State | 10c | 479.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Michigan State | 17c | 361$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Michigan State | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…56c1backed Michigan State | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Michigan State | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Michigan State | 23c | 175.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michigan State | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…db8ebacked Michigan State | 18c | 155.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Michigan State | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…1957backed Michigan State | 17c | 116.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…d14bbacked Michigan State | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Michigan State | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…12c3backed Michigan State | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Michigan State | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Michigan State | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Michigan State | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Michigan State | 17c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Michigan State | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…0b97backed Michigan State | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…d370backed Michigan State | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Michigan | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan vs. Michigan Statethis page
- Michigan vs. Michigan State: O/U 47.5Over won
- O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan (-13.5)Michigan State won
- Spread: Michigan (-14.5)Michigan State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.