Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3da3803956867a7fa9afd1475fc506fd5f7621d08b3e29d0f7bb7f26a1e1ebff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 2,753$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.77 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 1,943$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.64 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 1,667$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.15 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 68c | 1,443$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.69 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 77c | 1,281$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 48c | 953.3$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.72 | 153 | 61.4%94 W · 59 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 50c | 811.29$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.64 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 778.65$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.52 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 564.23$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.44 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 466.69$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.19 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 72c | 409.67$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 79c | 256.55$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.73 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 48c | 201.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Under | 51c | 192.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 68c | 165.6$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 61c | 128.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 124.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb3…78e9backed Under | 51c | 104.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 52c | 104.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 62c | 94.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 81.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…d51ebacked Under | 32c | 74.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…4a23backed Over | 51c | 54.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 49c | 53.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 51c | 43.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 47c | 41.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 56c | 34.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 71c | 29.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Alverca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.