Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e38db346dd72e1f06c7df85441a719dfbbb607b7e0472208fe59459b86f4fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 74c | 3,076$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.66 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 1,871$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.3 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 1,549$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 33c | 1,455$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.67 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 1,200$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.54 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,038$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.82 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 20c | 1,029$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Under | 80c | 784.46$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 75c | 640$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…b3c7backed Under | 75c | 596.04$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 584.98$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…fc9fbacked Over | 27c | 584.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…0ddebacked Under | 74c | 566.02$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 25c | 561.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 75c | 550$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 47c | 407.88$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 31c | 405.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 20c | 384$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 115 | 20.9%24 W · 91 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 26c | 182.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 45c | 153.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 138.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 80c | 109.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 72c | 105.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 23c | 89.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Over | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Under | 75c | 70.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 43c | 67.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 20c | 65.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 72c | 62.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 24c | 55.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 37c | 54.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Over | 25c | 52.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a29…43bebacked Over | 25c | 52.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Over | 25c | 44.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 73c | 43.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 71c | 42.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…c2b6backed Over | 27c | 37.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 68c | 36.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 28c | 35.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…3f1fbacked Over | 32c | 31.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 72c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 155 | 68.4%106 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 74c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Alverca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.