Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dafdff680ae254033cdeafa23b6e56c641ade285f7dfa399dc6eb1ea1c46472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 996.17$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 684.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 584.87$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.98 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 21c | 428.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 70c | 289.36$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 259.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 60c | 205.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 198.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 45c | 184.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 169.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 72c | 158.12$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 15c | 138.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 137.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 63c | 135.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 25c | 123.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 46c | 122.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 75c | 104.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked No | 13c | 99.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 92.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 59c | 80.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 78.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 54c | 70.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 58.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 24c | 52.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 20c | 52.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…8ab4backed Yes | 21c | 51.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 73c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 72c | 48.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 43.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 43.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 76c | 35.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 39c | 30.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x96ba…b875backed Yes | 68c | 26.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 63c | 25.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 46c | 25.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 56c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 69c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked Yes | 69c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 52c | 20.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 18.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…ced0backed No | 78c | 17.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 74c | 16.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.