Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe19ae1e35bcb4277bc9a1f1aa9fe3c2f722d56b079e75f2ee137e61c516841e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 515.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 47c | 414.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 42c | 354.19$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 345.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 332.31$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 261.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 45c | 197.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 35c | 194.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed No | 71c | 189.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 182.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 171.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 45c | 154.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 153.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 150.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…f760backed Yes | 37c | 138.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 135.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 35c | 120.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 114.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 54c | 106.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 70c | 98.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 63c | 91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 89.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 44c | 85.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 53c | 84.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 34c | 80.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 41c | 78.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 15c | 75.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 74.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 71.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 67.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 61.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 49c | 57.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 76c | 56.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 46c | 55.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfc…03afbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 49.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 57c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed No | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 45c | 48.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 46c | 47.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 43.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 60c | 41.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 33c | 40.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 39.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 59c | 37.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 70c | 37.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb73…b8b8backed Yes | 43c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked Yes | 36c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 37c | 31.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed No | 57c | 31.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 30.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 39c | 29.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 36c | 29.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 54c | 28.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 41c | 28.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c70…1d71backed Yes | 46c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 25.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…efc9backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 60c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 19.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 80c | 18.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 63c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 64c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.