MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db87a6502e50aea1d5201fcada22d24ecb322eb8f0e0adb7940b095c402370c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 2,037$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.98 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…a64cbacked Under | 42c | 869.92$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 823.55$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.97 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 59c | 318.61$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 59c | 318.09$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 58c | 269.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 58c | 176.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 58c | 168.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 59c | 165.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 59c | 165.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 58c | 149.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 58c | 125.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 58c | 118.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 57c | 46.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 58c | 44.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 42c | 34.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 60c | 30.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 27.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 58c | 27.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed Over | 58c | 27.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b19…a47fbacked Under | 47c | 22.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 57c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 74c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.