MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa41c4cc8c4faec87518f8536a4d103a503e4bdfa1faa28d3fa786ff519e5af29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 15c | 1,230$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.1 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 406.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 335.09$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.04 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Baltimore Orioles | 7c | 303.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 191.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Baltimore Orioles | 7c | 186.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 128.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 124.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 84.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…5623backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 69.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 67.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 62.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 42.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 38.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 36.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 32.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…502bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 27.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 24.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 875 | 52.7%461 W · 414 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.