College Football · resolved market
Will Texas beat Oklahoma by 15 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ddc6443f5dc0823ce428946bab89195303eeaa4a44825559aab9022f06d9537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Yes | 54c | 1,487$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,218$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.01 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +988.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…82fbbacked Yes | 53c | 1,128$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.44 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 48c | 1,057$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.59 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 53c | 609$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 50c | 469.38$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…a49ebacked No | 50c | 410.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yes | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked No | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 40c | 90.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc500…5e88backed Yes | 60c | 75.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 43c | 57.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…124abacked No | 44c | 56.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed No | 47c | 42.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…0bd5backed No | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…df86backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…1cc1backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb987…945ebacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…5d44backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Texas beat Oklahoma by 15 or more points?this page
- Will Texas and Oklahoma combine for 49 or more points?Under won
- Will Texas beat Oklahoma?Texas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.