MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de1700aebb615011ed6c0ab5fcededaa499d5d64f318678072c98c4864878e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 2,014$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 1,229$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.57 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 23c | 970.97$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 550$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 505.99$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.28 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 401.95$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 334.71$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 334.71$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 235.63$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 176$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 103.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 93.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 80c | 77.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 73.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 65.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 57.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago White Sox | 23c | 45.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 44.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 14.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.