MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894fe70383e1572fae3d43262a6f985429e85bf9633f786f23b2072b94ae5b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 4,685$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 3,823$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 53c | 2,872$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 52c | 1,669$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.12 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 48c | 1,542$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 35c | 1,228$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 51c | 1,010$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.9 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 40c | 958$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 31c | 941.07$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 55c | 731.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.13 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 385.31$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 74c | 375.77$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.07 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 34c | 327.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 34c | 289.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…0a3ebacked Under | 35c | 277.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 58c | 198.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 52c | 189.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 52c | 189.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 52c | 189.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 52c | 189.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 59c | 189$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 74c | 174.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 166$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 125.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 34c | 116.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 59c | 111.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 56c | 107.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 49c | 106$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 104.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 103.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 74c | 95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 52c | 92.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 77.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 60.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…35c6backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 57c | 51.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 52c | 51.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 58c | 50.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…4fe4backed Under | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 59c | 48.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 47.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 52c | 46.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 46.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 27c | 41.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 80c | 40.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…a302backed Under | 50c | 39.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 52c | 33.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…315bbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 44c | 27.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 52c | 20.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…4147backed Over | 65c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.