MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de4b1af9c03ab7dbe9e884e29683425c16fa96e7c40a7254f84cabcc0a70e9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 55c | 109,266$60,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,171.33 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 45c | 107,060$48,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,177.21 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 53c | 20,799$10,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,812.15 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 18,759$8,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,667.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 45c | 6,836$3,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,076.09 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 5,152$2,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.4 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 3,567$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.63 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 2,389$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.9 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 1,040$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.8 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 54c | 1,026$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 981.15$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.82 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 38c | 954.39$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.65 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 58c | 719.09$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.65 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 670.05$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 624.88$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.95 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 45c | 508.38$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.77 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 47c | 480.88$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.51 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 55c | 420$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 45c | 393.83$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 366.01$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 59c | 324$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 55c | 306.61$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 45c | 302$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 274.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 268$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 31c | 252.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 53c | 220.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 35c | 219.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 51c | 214.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 76c | 179.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 76c | 174.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 45c | 155.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…d620backed Under | 35c | 139.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 134.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 123.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 118.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 50c | 110.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 56c | 108$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 77c | 106$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 100.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 54c | 92.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 75c | 89.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 383 | 42%161 W · 222 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Under | 46c | 65.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 45c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 46c | 50.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 47c | 36.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 47c | 35.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 30.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 37c | 28.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 80c | 20.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 50c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 66c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.