MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ea71fb73f4d0981f1234c29aa16d614a013b0ae058cc5f168b9b0173f391b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 11,014$5,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,496.24 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 5,940$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,103.54 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 5,637$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713.11 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 50c | 5,499$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,738.32 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 2,611$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 2,207$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.81 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 34c | 1,999$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.09 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 1,955$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 54c | 1,137$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.54 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 49c | 1,065$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.99 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 55c | 954.12$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.77 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 853.62$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.3 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 56c | 825.74$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.42 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 817.33$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.14 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 808.29$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.48 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 21c | 779.36$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.98 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 54c | 772.17$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.97 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 678.64$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 673$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.88 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 55c | 540$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 452$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.6 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 327.56$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 246.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 241$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 44c | 214.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 58c | 212.6$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 52c | 194.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 51c | 163.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 38c | 142.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 55c | 132.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 120.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 117.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 115.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Over | 46c | 106$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 99.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…4a8ebacked Under | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 80.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 45c | 79.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 25c | 59.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 19c | 54.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 57c | 50.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 59c | 47.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 53c | 43.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 46c | 40.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Over | 49c | 40.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1930…691cbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 34.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 30.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 54c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Under | 44c | 24.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 66c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.