South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e12c7844fffd33d3f8ceab2421af82b9d9d6a3ece04010e8748cfc147973812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 64c | 20,318$12,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,372.56 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 36c | 12,223$4,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,404.61 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 5,167$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.68 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Under | 65c | 2,835$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Over | 36c | 1,909$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 36c | 1,544$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.23 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 36c | 865.38$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.56 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Over | 36c | 534.22$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2410…340cbacked Over | 36c | 504.86$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked Over | 41c | 322.52$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 321.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 317.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 37c | 248.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 66c | 195.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Over | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 57c | 180.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 43c | 179.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Over | 36c | 151.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 37c | 105.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 19c | 68.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 36c | 67.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 63c | 61.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 17c | 60.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 37c | 42.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Over | 41c | 41.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…abe7backed Over | 36c | 39.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 36c | 33.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 36c | 33.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Over | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)CDP Junior FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.