Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will NEC vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e2964cacf49bad68caf58a582724d3ddacd64deb6c297ddb0d59ea4a471be93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 3,111$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.8 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 1,368$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,282$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.69 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 42c | 1,031$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.01 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 708.19$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.33 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 76c | 672$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.01 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 30c | 595.02$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.13 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 560.83$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.92 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…af75backed Yes | 25c | 401.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…51adbacked Yes | 25c | 399.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 219.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 8c | 175.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.56 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 173.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 165.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 63c | 158.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 46c | 156.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 144.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Yes | 22c | 143.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 31c | 108$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 43c | 106.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…0770backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 63c | 99.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 24c | 81.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…2b64backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 54.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 72c | 48.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…779fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 55c | 42.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…64ccbacked No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 77c | 14.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NEC vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will NEC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.