Premier League · resolved market
Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e2b6c17d83d9875220b42e27cec826d2c716ffd3a58730da90b9d075c6639c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 3,417$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.57 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Over | 68c | 2,100$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…9abfbacked Over | 74c | 1,750$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 18c | 1,120$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 28c | 1,004$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.88 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 79c | 645.57$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 19c | 622.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 20c | 444$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 15c | 409.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 28c | 398.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 21c | 301.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 252.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 76c | 154.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 80c | 122.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Over | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…fca8backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…23d9backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…27bdbacked Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 79c | 38.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…5ee5backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…947dbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…5e75backed Over | 80c | 23.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 79c | 23.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…b0afbacked Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…c60abacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 1.5this page
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace (-1.5)Manchester United won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.