Premier League · resolved market
Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4700a6f400c6c9278b5672330118fcf9078808984f5fcd48d7f201314959b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 19,632$13,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,085.73 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…3d76backed Over | 8c | 17,108$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 30c | 8,044$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.36 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 31c | 5,313$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.92 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 27c | 4,999$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.73 | 110 | 29.1%32 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 68c | 4,496$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.84 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…d3dcbacked Over | 45c | 1,990$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.54 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Over | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.63 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Under | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 69c | 608.7$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 66c | 570$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 63c | 541.27$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.27 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 258 | 36%93 W · 165 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f39…4c71backed Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 64c | 412.67$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.11 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 67c | 369$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 33c | 333.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7256backed Over | 30c | 328.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 310.11$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 31c | 299.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Under | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 76c | 264.8$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 67c | 261.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…c953backed Under | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…a9ebbacked Over | 42c | 231.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…bd21backed Over | 57c | 221.59$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 39c | 205$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…a5e4backed Under | 77c | 180.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Under | 68c | 161.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed Under | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 64c | 124.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Under | 39c | 123.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 119.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 34c | 111.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb47f…d792backed Over | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…9bbebacked Under | 78c | 89.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 42c | 86.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Over | 37c | 81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -7.0wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…874abacked Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b7…36e8backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 73c | 70.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Over | 57c | 69.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 33c | 67.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Under | 68c | 62.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Under | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…27bdbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 63c | 42.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Under | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Over | 44c | 33.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Under | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…2711backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…f247backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Under | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Under | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5this page
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Crystal Palace (-1.5)Manchester United won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.