Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Crystal Palace (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff111e2475b27462ae6e6614401e2fd782e8dc5d6589c76625e7e355eb109d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester Unitedof Crystal Palace, Manchester United
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United | 76c | 8,549$6,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.32 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Crystal Palace | 23c | 7,903$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.07 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Crystal Palace | 3c | 4,953$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…6953backed Crystal Palace | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Crystal Palace | 30c | 827.43$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0fc2backed Manchester United | 66c | 710.15$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…ed14backed Crystal Palace | 22c | 638.31$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Crystal Palace | 3c | 622.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Manchester United | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Manchester United | 78c | 438.4$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…fd87backed Crystal Palace | 25c | 417.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…d542backed Crystal Palace | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Crystal Palace | 10c | 277.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…8480backed Crystal Palace | 25c | 200.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Crystal Palace | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Crystal Palace | 17c | 124.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Crystal Palace | 22c | 120.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Crystal Palace | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Crystal Palace | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…f79fbacked Manchester United | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Crystal Palace | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Crystal Palace | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Manchester United | 78c | 48.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Crystal Palace (-1.5)this page
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.