Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e337b52d6c3016516b6eaa74c045a38d0f1650b76903cf8daaa55d2ae804822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 1,593$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 58c | 1,314$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.96 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Yes | 46c | 877.49$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 750.06$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…98c3backed Yes | 46c | 701.51$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 39c | 451.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 40c | 425.16$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.66 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 67c | 409.55$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 61c | 400.25$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 33c | 393.08$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed Yes | 74c | 266.05$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 52c | 185$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Yes | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked No | 47c | 149.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Yes | 60c | 126$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed No | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 53c | 105.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Yes | 53c | 70.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 60c | 49.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 56c | 44.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Yes | 63c | 39.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 44c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 31c | 36.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 42c | 29.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 55c | 28.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed No | 44c | 27.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…3f86backed Yes | 56c | 26.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 49c | 25.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 56c | 19.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…db25backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.