Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5e59a2fff20ffa1cbbd72262cc286df55afbf244c8ade25a9a4c4efe8f7c6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 27c | 1,722$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 58c | 1,395$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.48 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 43c | 1,054$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 57c | 899.93$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.97 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…85f2backed Over | 55c | 799.99$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 789.48$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…f2c0backed Over | 56c | 784.51$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 691.6$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.38 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 571.04$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.81 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 340.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 68c | 315.8$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.83 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 57c | 256.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 57c | 255.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 252.64$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 242.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 212.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 8c | 210.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed Under | 47c | 205.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 45c | 139.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 134.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 15c | 130.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 111$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 19c | 108.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 97.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 90.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 43c | 71.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 61.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 58.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 47c | 55.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 56c | 55.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 53c | 55.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 53c | 45.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 41c | 41.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 44c | 33.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 46c | 23.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 62c | 20.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…20eabacked Over | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 74c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.