Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee789c2290f88dcaba6362e02bf0adad8fa9a0e949c77bf1e14d4554d2536603
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 2,687$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 2,505$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.33 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 35c | 2,357$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 65c | 2,093$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.04 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 66c | 2,062$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.99 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 67c | 2,048$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.29 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 1,678$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.2 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Over | 64c | 1,222$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.76 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 64c | 1,214$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 66c | 1,163$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.3 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 70c | 1,111$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.32 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 66c | 1,046$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.67 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 950.75$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.58 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 35c | 829.21$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.95 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 65c | 804.36$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.83 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 65c | 752.46$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 77c | 705.01$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.12 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 65c | 595.96$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 67c | 568.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.88 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 505.2$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.71 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 68c | 467.54$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 56c | 440.46$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.86 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Under | 26c | 438.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 63c | 431.66$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…85f2backed Over | 56c | 401.89$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 10c | 399.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Over | 56c | 396.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 63c | 310.51$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…98c3backed Over | 29c | 304.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 38c | 243.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 220.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 212.73$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b39…65adbacked Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Under | 37c | 182.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 65c | 181.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 34c | 166.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 66c | 139.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 35c | 137.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 134.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…fccdbacked Over | 63c | 129$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 63c | 107$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 63c | 101.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 56c | 99.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 96.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 58c | 90.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 24c | 84.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Under | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Over | 61c | 79.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Over | 63c | 70.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 68c | 49.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 43c | 49.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 55c | 49.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 63c | 47.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 64c | 45.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 65c | 42.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…f9a7backed Under | 32c | 38.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 47c | 37.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…3039backed Over | 63c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634e…06cbbacked Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 34c | 30.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 65c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 57c | 24.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 55c | 23.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…fd2ebacked Over | 65c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Over | 58c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 50c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…9241backed Over | 58c | 17.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.