Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4374aead57319f0564f53f78878ae255fad7af5ea46ea0275dc596acb19a82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,074$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d8…355ebacked Yes | 41c | 275$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 233.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 190$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 61c | 168.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…3d8abacked Yes | 79c | 125.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 121.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 111.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 55c | 96.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 32c | 93.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 82.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 43c | 82.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 38c | 65.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…b99fbacked No | 70c | 63.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 33c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…4251backed Yes | 35c | 57.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…8a6abacked Yes | 39c | 51.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 51.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 30c | 50.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 54c | 50.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 72c | 46.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 45.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Yes | 77c | 40.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 38.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 36.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 41c | 35.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 66c | 31.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 55c | 30.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 65c | 26.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…1844backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 49c | 20.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…1cd7backed Yes | 67c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed No | 68c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.