Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e477f53518fd13d3e3079811ebf82b199c65e89472f20218d174f8192095f3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 13c | 1,917$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.3 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 75c | 860$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.28 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 76c | 737.41$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.46 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 51c | 311.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 225.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 23c | 216.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 205$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 15c | 194.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.46 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 26c | 156.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 70c | 150.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 60c | 133.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 17c | 72.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked Yes | 76c | 69.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 25c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 68c | 54.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 65c | 50.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 41.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…3f36backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 53c | 30.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…caf0backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…ce3dbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.