Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e568a859cfb05f69c8921e9cc4100b203a3839f5fac34f68ee1d441c35e2025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 39c | 641.41$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 401.05$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 57c | 376.42$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.23 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 282.71$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 240.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 46c | 180.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 56c | 177.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 176.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 49c | 175.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 161.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 51c | 154.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 47c | 147.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 54c | 95.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 92.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 42c | 84.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 42c | 77.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 74.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 44c | 73.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 33c | 67.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 33c | 58.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 56c | 49.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 30c | 47.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 38c | 41.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 38.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 49c | 38.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 32c | 38.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 51c | 37.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 37.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 37.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd343…a7d1backed Yes | 54c | 35.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 34.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 61c | 31.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 55c | 31.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ab…86b5backed Yes | 41c | 30.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 41c | 30.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7d4bbacked Yes | 37c | 27.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 37c | 27.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 38c | 27.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 45c | 27.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 58c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 70c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 67c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 68c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.