MLB · resolved market
Will Juan Soto sign with the Yankees?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eabab9ce7e7cf6455467369cfbe9cd999bb67d5df5d136ff7866ea1a5fd3d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,374$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…97e3backed Yes | 2c | 6,454$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,163$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,151$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…f731backed Yes | 52c | 705.91$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba20…28b8backed Yes | 28c | 564.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…cf0dbacked Yes | 43c | 536.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…a595backed Yes | 35c | 428.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 35c | 257.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…1e3dbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140c…af4dbacked Yes | 20c | 190.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 38c | 187.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…c8ccbacked Yes | 30c | 128.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 19c | 124.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +332.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…65cebacked Yes | 34c | 114.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 102.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked No | 54c | 60.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 28c | 59.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 30c | 57.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 46c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…fb1bbacked Yes | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juan Soto sign with the Yankees?this page
- Will Juan Soto sign with the Boston Red Sox?No won
- Will Juan Soto sign with the Chicago Cubs?No won
- Will Juan Soto sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers?No won
- Will Juan Soto sign with the New York Mets?Yes won
- Will Juan Soto sign with the San Francisco Giants?No won
- Will Juan Soto sign with the Toronto Blue Jays?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.