South American Leagues · resolved market
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ecc6b11f6e50caf202b8b5b1712b3a215634843716d8c77a902b19d1e633c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 1,804$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 30c | 1,230$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.91 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 760.36$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.72 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 751.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.94 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed Over | 67c | 351.89$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 80c | 319.54$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 227.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 66c | 179.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 65c | 154.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 65c | 152.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Under | 66c | 150.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 56c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 43c | 115.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 79c | 91.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 90.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under | 41c | 88.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 21c | 78.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…fe86backed Under | 36c | 68.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 68c | 59.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 67c | 49.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 30c | 48.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 30c | 40.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Under | 69c | 36.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 60c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 29.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.