South American Leagues · resolved market
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c87de43c7e91ca261dbb9f3f8d8bfb961fc3dc8cceba8e6c81d11ffd9301de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 55c | 13,767$7,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,214.73 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…56dbbacked Over | 12c | 11,426$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,054.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 45c | 6,166$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.58 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 3,313$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…70d4backed Over | 55c | 2,224$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Under | 44c | 1,622$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 1,393$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.55 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 45c | 1,000$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 44c | 915$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.49 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 50c | 803.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 50c | 752.34$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.17 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 53c | 470.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 57c | 292.41$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 23c | 241$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…800bbacked Over | 12c | 241$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.90per pick | 11cpaid | +872.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 232.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080d…db3ebacked Over | 56c | 227.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 71c | 206.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Under | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 78c | 196.77$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 28c | 176.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 69c | 175.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 44c | 162$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 118.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…1ad7backed Under | 45c | 80.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Over | 56c | 80.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Under | 27c | 56.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 52.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 46c | 39.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 55c | 29.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 51c | 29.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 65c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 45c | 23.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…c407backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 77c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.