Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ee76599ddce9e18c0ea4d30ebcb1f9d046e0aa4af859fe7e12fbb83fdf5154d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 15c | 1,183$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 24c | 757.21$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 24c | 755.21$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 75c | 659.14$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.88 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 540.4$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 24c | 404.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 78c | 385.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 269.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…5ca7backed Over | 78c | 256.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under | 12c | 239.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 75c | 207.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 25c | 205.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 75c | 199.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 75c | 176$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 21c | 167.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 9c | 123$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 21c | 108.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 76c | 108.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 17c | 86.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 78c | 56.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Over | 78c | 55.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 75c | 46.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 78c | 45.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 78c | 43.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Over | 78c | 39.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…f8c6backed Over | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Over | 77c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.