Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a5fec6754767fa06d4ca6eeb8e229f231289fed897db5ac388e19454ad2799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 21,395$11,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,827.75 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 4,117$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.21 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 42c | 3,900$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,261.98 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 46c | 3,200$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,443$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.05 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 46c | 2,400$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 46c | 1,400$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 46c | 1,278$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.34 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 54c | 1,200$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.87 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 46c | 1,184$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.64 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,015$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.6 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 56c | 893.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.48 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 820.43$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.19 | 125 | 64%80 W · 45 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 46c | 520$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 46c | 520$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 46c | 347.78$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 46c | 320$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 46c | 312$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 46c | 312$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 46c | 280$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 272.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 194$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 193.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 60c | 167.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 54c | 159.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 45c | 107.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 64c | 106.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Under | 49c | 101.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…f730backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…32b2backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 41c | 36.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 32.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 31.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 55c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 25.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…9633backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.