Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0bb016c7c87f14197ce5c05c14e36e139199b9e31b4790d597a59d0431f9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 14c | 3,903$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.17 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 58c | 3,496$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.72 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 21c | 1,664$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.21 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 1,197$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.85 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 33c | 999.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 21c | 991.9$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 67c | 823.45$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.74 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed No | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 70c | 458.61$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Yes | 75c | 330$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…0312backed Yes | 76c | 263.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 18c | 201.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee3…cab9backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 32c | 183.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff45…69babacked Yes | 77c | 182.36$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 77c | 167.03$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 53c | 137$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 450 | 52.2%235 W · 215 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…6b5fbacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 15c | 117.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…b686backed No | 20c | 104.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…1ec0backed Yes | 43c | 101.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 100.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…ff47backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 16c | 79.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 51c | 76.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 30c | 60.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 284 | 64.8%184 W · 100 L | +29.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 62c | 52.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 729 | 44.2%322 W · 407 L | -29.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…8845backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 60c | 21.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 71c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…f7d1backed Yes | 78c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.