Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0cac4927cd3ca4f904df279caff20f273ac5a9f28a5b523b3db817504e0897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49e4…6db2backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 1c | 2,875$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 57c | 284.1$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 222.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 129.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 120.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 60c | 93.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 39c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…9608backed Yes | 28c | 71.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 52.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Yes | 40c | 49.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 59c | 39.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cfd7backed Yes | 59c | 33.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 58c | 31.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on January 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.