Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe12271ad4fc5826efae0c7b92f1a389dea26b314315670233e77384e36b5399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 2,371$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 39c | 371.44$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…9608backed Yes | 72c | 327.46$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 17c | 244.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.07 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 42c | 201.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 68c | 139.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…76e9backed No | 76c | 132.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 131.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 52c | 99.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 73c | 72.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 64.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…ea52backed Yes | 33c | 63.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 24c | 60.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…bec0backed Yes | 30c | 54.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b6…0f30backed Yes | 23c | 42.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…be85backed Yes | 36c | 41.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e4…2593backed No | 75c | 39.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 65c | 22.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 62c | 21.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c8c3backed No | 74c | 20.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…afcfbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 76c | 16.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed No | 75c | 15.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.