NBA · resolved market
NBA Summer League: Toronto Raptors vs. Houston Rockets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0cb2e7b1b4cb543b5def0ac1047c76eb9c94cad63d9d738d5a84b156ca2c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Raptorsof Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Houston Rockets | 1c | 5,700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Houston Rockets | 48c | 1,845$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.55 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Houston Rockets | 42c | 1,441$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Houston Rockets | 2c | 1,075$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Houston Rockets | 33c | 914.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Toronto Raptors | 58c | 827$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.34 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Toronto Raptors | 63c | 805.59$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.93 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Raptors | 58c | 710.01$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Raptors | 59c | 591.76$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.59 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Houston Rockets | 55c | 502.11$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Houston Rockets | 46c | 473.75$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc50…f8debacked Houston Rockets | 45c | 453.31$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Toronto Raptors | 76c | 448$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Raptors | 55c | 404.11$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.39 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Toronto Raptors | 52c | 392.02$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.73 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…e172backed Houston Rockets | 45c | 342.32$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Toronto Raptors | 51c | 293.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Toronto Raptors | 44c | 225.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Toronto Raptors | 55c | 162$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Houston Rockets | 54c | 154.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Houston Rockets | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…aeb7backed Houston Rockets | 44c | 134$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked Houston Rockets | 13c | 133.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Houston Rockets | 42c | 121.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked Houston Rockets | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 45.4%123 W · 148 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Toronto Raptors | 68c | 104.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Raptors | 78c | 101.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Toronto Raptors | 58c | 98.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Toronto Raptors | 46c | 94.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a6…cf4bbacked Houston Rockets | 47c | 94.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Toronto Raptors | 53c | 77.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Houston Rockets | 25c | 77.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Raptors | 58c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Toronto Raptors | 60c | 64.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Toronto Raptors | 73c | 57.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…0439backed Toronto Raptors | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Houston Rockets | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…cd08backed Houston Rockets | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Toronto Raptors | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Toronto Raptors | 60c | 31.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Toronto Raptors | 55c | 30.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Toronto Raptors | 62c | 29.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Toronto Raptors | 56c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Houston Rockets | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -11.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Toronto Raptors | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Toronto Raptors | 60c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 323 | 51.1%165 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.