NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f353325f079733f24bb52018b21a3c346e9f8fde5208c197370d012961dc544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Golden Knights | 35c | 154,776$54,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,605.2 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 65c | 154,202$100,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,231.01 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 34c | 3,790$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.6 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Kings | 66c | 2,500$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Kings | 66c | 1,366$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.55 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kings | 66c | 1,180$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.8 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Kings | 70c | 1,090$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 688.09$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.05 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Golden Knights | 31c | 645$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.05 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Kings | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights | 39c | 373.12$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.01 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kings | 65c | 349.88$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.42 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Golden Knights | 34c | 298.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.49 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Golden Knights | 34c | 286$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 66c | 278$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Kings | 67c | 179.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Kings | 68c | 151.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4785…921ebacked Kings | 66c | 148.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 28c | 139.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Golden Knights | 32c | 118.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Kings | 26c | 73.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Kings | 68c | 63.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kings | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1381…7490backed Kings | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…b0d3backed Golden Knights | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed Kings | 65c | 27.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Kings vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.