South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f3b165bf1132593750256ef67779e56704cb964573406eddbe3617a81711f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 49c | 993.47$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.63 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 951.76$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 70c | 648.32$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 54c | 537.06$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.28 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…f294backed Over | 53c | 485.9$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 405.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 21c | 369.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 48c | 302.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…ef1abacked Under | 79c | 260$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…317ebacked Under | 67c | 219.45$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 219.29$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 21c | 204.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 74c | 196.88$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Over | 32c | 134.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 80c | 127.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 30c | 83.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 80.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…0593backed Under | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Under | 53c | 54.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 43c | 35.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 21.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 72c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: O/U 4.5this page
- CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CF Monterrey (-1.5)Club Puebla won
- Spread: CF Monterrey (-2.5)Club Puebla won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.