Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f414c672b829c86c7166e7210435a88ae2b29fb2f5fe197baeb343b41e7f77d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 60c | 8,300$4,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.99 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 61c | 4,906$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.39 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Under | 40c | 2,688$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.24 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 39c | 1,618$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.86 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8df…4b48backed Under | 39c | 1,601$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.24 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 40c | 1,152$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.81 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Under | 40c | 882$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…fc19backed Under | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -8.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…01d6backed Under | 40c | 660$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Under | 39c | 651.28$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 260 | 42.3%110 W · 150 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Under | 39c | 621.11$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.24 | 438 | 39.7%174 W · 264 L | -24.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Under | 39c | 543$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.77 | 159 | 50.9%81 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…54a4backed Under | 40c | 457.5$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Under | 40c | 391.03$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 60c | 292.19$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…7653backed Under | 40c | 270.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Under | 40c | 225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Under | 41c | 173.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…c071backed Under | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Under | 42c | 113.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 427 | 35.4%151 W · 276 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 58c | 113.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Under | 39c | 97.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Under | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 256 | 40.6%104 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…178dbacked Under | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Under | 37c | 29.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a67…6ddebacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 60c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 797 | 45.8%365 W · 432 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…3738backed Over | 69c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?this page
- Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)Shopify Rebellion won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.