Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e585abef8c869747fb906f89b12cf8fc042722c64fabd082151fedff3ba6136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellionof FlyQuest, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked FlyQuest | 47c | 3,315$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.34 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 2,264$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.15 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 522.89$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.76 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Shopify Rebellion | 52c | 415.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 287$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed FlyQuest | 46c | 280.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked FlyQuest | 48c | 208.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…5ea8backed FlyQuest | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…d07fbacked FlyQuest | 47c | 116$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 959 | 51.3%492 W · 467 L | +42.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…b7c4backed FlyQuest | 65c | 107.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 102.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -19.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FlyQuest | 47c | 96.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed FlyQuest | 46c | 94.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 90.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 1,630 | 40.1%654 W · 976 L | +48.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked FlyQuest | 43c | 77.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…5da6backed FlyQuest | 48c | 76.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FlyQuest | 45c | 59.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shopify Rebellion | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed FlyQuest | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 331 | 43.8%145 W · 186 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…cfaabacked FlyQuest | 48c | 56.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 53.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…3d70backed Shopify Rebellion | 57c | 52.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Shopify Rebellion | 59c | 52.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 52.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 536 | 49.8%267 W · 269 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Shopify Rebellion | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed FlyQuest | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -9.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…3738backed FlyQuest | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 29.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 29.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked FlyQuest | 42c | 26.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.