World Politics · resolved market
Canada election called by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6eb8cc0e582e406ca672edda0bbcf4d6a5858422047904143dd23717b82f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed No | 3c | 4,067$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 3,969$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…0401backed No | 7c | 3,292$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 0c | 3,205$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 3c | 2,159$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…8dadbacked No | 8c | 1,279$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked No | 2c | 1,262$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 4c | 700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed No | 7c | 565$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe13…c5ffbacked No | 11c | 552.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…ae0fbacked No | 6c | 496.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 10c | 449.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…8695backed No | 5c | 410$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed No | 5c | 393.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…518dbacked No | 10c | 353.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 6c | 332.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 6c | 330$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d7…dee1backed No | 7c | 307$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed No | 7c | 300.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 8c | 259.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…4211backed No | 40c | 230$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 56c | 190$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…fe28backed No | 7c | 172$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d35…0ae3backed No | 7c | 164$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…3724backed No | 7c | 159$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…6020backed No | 7c | 154$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…c1efbacked No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…2c7fbacked No | 7c | 147$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…1e9abacked No | 7c | 146$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…cc2cbacked No | 8c | 145.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ba…243ebacked No | 7c | 144$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…19acbacked No | 11c | 141$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed No | 15c | 78.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.