Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Fearnley (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f761ed89ea8f1e0668a0516f8b732038eea03392eb8fdbfdade05502648ca24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fearnleyof Fritz, Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Fritz | 59c | 1,848$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.31 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Fearnley | 41c | 950$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.5 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fearnley | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Fearnley | 41c | 369.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Fearnley | 41c | 98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Fritz | 62c | 80.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fearnley | 39c | 64.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Fearnley | 28c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fritz | 62c | 41.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fearnley | 39c | 35.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Fearnley | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Fritz | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Fritz | 60c | 28.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Fritz | 69c | 20.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Fearnley (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Taylor FritzTaylor Fritz won
- Fearnley vs. Fritz: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Jacob Fearnley vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Fearnley vs FritzFritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.