Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Taylor Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a76e5e9c9d2163609c533a26a73a81893edc0dfcfe027a4749a97ec022ff4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Taylor Fritzof Jacob Fearnley, Taylor Fritz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,664 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jacob Fearnley | 8c | 12,821$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.7 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Taylor Fritz | 80c | 10,075$8,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.06 | 926 | 55.9%518 W · 408 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 18c | 8,862$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jacob Fearnley | 10c | 7,767$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.37 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Jacob Fearnley | 2c | 7,578$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 1,205 | 8%96 W · 1,109 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 15c | 7,277$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.22 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jacob Fearnley | 10c | 4,488$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Jacob Fearnley | 1c | 4,176$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jacob Fearnley | 3c | 3,347$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 7c | 3,282$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Jacob Fearnley | 10c | 3,184$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jacob Fearnley | 19c | 1,968$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.92 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c03…d894backed Jacob Fearnley | 6c | 1,164$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jacob Fearnley | 6c | 1,126$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Jacob Fearnley | 19c | 925.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jacob Fearnley | 16c | 771.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jacob Fearnley | 16c | 677.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Jacob Fearnley | 5c | 562.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Jacob Fearnley | 19c | 524$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jacob Fearnley | 16c | 476.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…3ec1backed Jacob Fearnley | 25c | 400.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Jacob Fearnley | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Jacob Fearnley | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 575 | 22.1%127 W · 448 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Jacob Fearnley | 14c | 244.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 6,596 | 50.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L | +259.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Jacob Fearnley | 16c | 240$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Jacob Fearnley | 19c | 199.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Jacob Fearnley | 20c | 195$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Jacob Fearnley | 11c | 178.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Taylor Fritz | 80c | 176$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,828 | 53.1%971 W · 857 L | -44.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Jacob Fearnley | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Jacob Fearnley | 7c | 155.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 53 | 79.2%42 W · 11 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Jacob Fearnley | 18c | 133.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,965 | 46.4%911 W · 1,054 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Taylor Fritz | 77c | 130.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 235 | 54.5%128 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jacob Fearnley | 14c | 121.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 18c | 120.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Jacob Fearnley | 18c | 118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 182 | 33.5%61 W · 121 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Taylor Fritz | 79c | 116$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 891 | 64.3%573 W · 318 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…d6fcbacked Jacob Fearnley | 20c | 109.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 18c | 103.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Jacob Fearnley | 13c | 95.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Jacob Fearnley | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 964 | 44.2%426 W · 538 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Jacob Fearnley | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0125…ddd1backed Taylor Fritz | 76c | 46.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Jacob Fearnley | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Taylor Fritz | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Taylor Fritzthis page
- Fearnley vs. Fritz: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Jacob Fearnley vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Fearnley vs FritzFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Fearnley (+1.5)Fearnley won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.