Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f7c751da39f86caeeff5d8856f4e71aa54a445a52c3104b0f8efa862a35a048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 271$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 232.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 228.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 17c | 219.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 8c | 160.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 159.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 140.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 74c | 135.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 69c | 128.87$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 29c | 77.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 77.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 75.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 75.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 24c | 72.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 70.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 59.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 49.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 48c | 46.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 70c | 37.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 36.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 69c | 36.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 34c | 31.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 30.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 26.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 53c | 25.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 24.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 57c | 21.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 48c | 20.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.