MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f9b2899093d9a257cb1432eaf10d90cb5e0e1b91324eb5f21e2b6fe0596504d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 26,679$16,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,871.07 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 25,691$9,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,505.57 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,369$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 998.99$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.63 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 620$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 573.96$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.45 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 481.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 353.17$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 343.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 313.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.71 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 252.18$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 246.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 219.44$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 192.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 177.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 157.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Los Angeles Angels | 67c | 147.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 141.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 121.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 104.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 73.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 49.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 76c | 49.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 48.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 46.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 42.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 39.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 39.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 24.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.