MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8153f7eb7e7801c43c102745a4e25c8f968f73a3aec7ed28e6b265de4727b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Yes | 55c | 759.46$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Yes | 56c | 726.21$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.07 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 45c | 454$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.3 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 44c | 427.96$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 46c | 285$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 53c | 254.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…62c7backed No | 48c | 247.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 46c | 241.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed Yes | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 54c | 165.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…e6b8backed Yes | 54c | 109.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Yes | 56c | 95.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 55c | 52.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 46c | 40.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…eb2cbacked No | 47c | 34.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 47c | 29.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.