MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fb7f983d2243e97484a4a6ad91b1181213b37eee5b72d413f87adce366ac09f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 4,989$3,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 4,166$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 39c | 1,921$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,149$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 47c | 945.96$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 788.64$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 748$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.14 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 413.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed New York Yankees | 23c | 298$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 297$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 141.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed New York Yankees | 35c | 90.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed New York Yankees | 35c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Yankees | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Yankees | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 41.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 39.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed New York Yankees | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed New York Yankees | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed New York Yankees | 38c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 25.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Yankees | 48c | 25.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed New York Yankees | 76c | 25.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 64c | 19.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed New York Yankees | 71c | 17.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.