Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fbe9ff6cdb993083c0da0118b54be0ca526a56818eb268f1cb017c2a372928f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 7,406$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,381.23 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 5,143$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350.43 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 65c | 4,417$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.37 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,664$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 27c | 275.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.09 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 65c | 58.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 27c | 49.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 32c | 45.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 66c | 42.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 66c | 42.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 55c | 40.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 35.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 29.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +7.1wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…03c8backed Under | 62c | 27.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 62c | 25.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Under | 66c | 24.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 66c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9570…17c0backed Over | 72c | 16.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…92e3backed Over | 72c | 16.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed Under | 67c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Fagiano Okayama O/U 0.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Fagiano Okayama O/U 1.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 5.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: V-Varen Nagasaki 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 0.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.