UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fdb4ce073a62a78c09ceeb9cdd5f51432ff3a115c7af16f0188f88e1590c36d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a452backed Yes | 33c | 1,550$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 34c | 982.08$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.08 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…fb36backed Yes | 33c | 339$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 65c | 310$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 64c | 269.79$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 35c | 243.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…6eb7backed No | 67c | 92.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 67c | 82.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 36c | 72.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked No | 65c | 48.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…da99backed No | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed No | 64c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Kyle Prepolec vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)Mateusz Rebecki won
- Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.